This game is a simplified scenario, not a measured model of any real basin. The relationships below come from published research led at UC Santa Barbara's Bren School; the numbers in the game (well depths, pumping rates, costs, rainfall) are invented so the story plays out in 20 turns.
Research-backed relationships
Pumping lowers the water table most steeply around the well that pumps, in a cone of depression that spreads to neighbours.
Wells fail long before an aquifer is empty. Shallower wells, often household wells, run dry first when water levels drop by only a few metres.
Groundwater declines are widespread and, in many aquifers, accelerating. Recoveries exist, and they follow deliberate interventions: alternative supplies, pumping rules, managed recharge.
Rivers and aquifers trade water. When the water table drops below the river bed, a river that once gained water from the ground starts losing water into it, and can disconnect.
Managed recharge depends on where you put it: geology, rainfall intensity and land use govern how much water actually reaches the aquifer.
Sources
Jasechko, S. & Perrone, D. (2021). Global groundwater wells at risk of running dry. Science 372, 418–421. doi:10.1126/science.abc2755
Jasechko, S., Seybold, H., Perrone, D., Fan, Y., Shamsudduha, M., Taylor, R. G., Fallatah, O. & Kirchner, J. W. (2024). Rapid groundwater declines in many aquifers globally, but recoveries exist. Nature 625, 715–721. doi:10.1038/s41586-023-06879-8
Jasechko, S., Seybold, H., Perrone, D., Fan, Y. & Kirchner, J. W. (2021). Widespread potential loss of streamflow into underlying aquifers across the USA. Nature 591, 391–395. doi:10.1038/s41586-021-03311-x
Jasechko, S. (2026). Review of documented groundwater recoveries (67 cases: alternative supplies, management policies, artificial recharge). Science, March 2026. Citation to be confirmed with the author.
California Groundwater Recharge Observatory, UCSB Marine Science Institute: how rainfall intensity, geology, land use and managed flooding shape recharge.
UCSB Groundwater Research Hub (Jasechko, Perrone and colleagues): using observational data to understand water stress and evaluate management responses.
Invented for the game: the valley, its six wells, the farms and families, all dollar figures, the rainfall sequence, the aquifer's spreading rate and specific yield, and the recharge-basin yields. These should be reviewed by Bren faculty before any classroom use.